Episode 617: Dangerous Dodgers, Spray Hitters, and a World Without Moneyball
Date February 18, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam catch up on banter and answer listener emails about the Dodgers, the shift, Moneyball, and more. Topics * Do the Dodgers have too much money? * Competitive balance * Spray hitters to combat the shift * Starter to reliever improvements * Baseball without Moneyball * Statistics used for arbitration Intro Blondie, "I Know but I Don't Know" Banter * Sam is drinking coffee and eating dulce de leche ice cream. * Matt Albers signed with the White Sox and Barry Zito signed with the A's. * Episode 565 follow-up: Joe Maddon's wife did open the gym in Tampa Bay even after he left the Rays. It is a 'spoxing' gym which involves boxing on spin bikes * The strike zone may be raised for 2015. * Fat player photos: Pablo Sandoval, Yasiel Puig, and Jose Fernandez Email Questions * Matt: "I'm a free market baseball guy all the way, I don't like caps on amateur spending nor competitive balance draft picks (at least the way those strictures have been implemented under this CBA). Competitive imbalance is obviously a threat to the game but I prefer that teams be allowed to keep and spend their money according to their whims, for the most part. But, sometimes a team does get too far ahead of the pack. The Yankees 15-20 years ago had so much money and so little restraint that they could outbid anyone for anything they wanted and more alarmingly easily fade any mistakes even big ones. That did diminish the competition in the American League. Are the Dodgers getting to that point? They're talking about going after Hector Olivera to play third base which apparently would lead to trade of Juan Uribe. If the recent pattern holds the team would eat Uribe's salary and turn him into an actual asset even as they cast him aside. They did the same thing by offering the Marlins and eight figure subsidy on Dan Haren and by swallowing nearly $20 million on Matt Kemp. They did something even tackier by signing Brett Anderson for $10 million. The biggest thing for me though might be that Erisbel Arruebarrena signed for $25 million in February, was DFA'd in December, and wasn't even close to being claimed. The Dodgers had to push a guy they had invested in hugely in off their 40 man roster 10 months after signing him and no one could afford to even entertain calling their bluff. In essence LA got to sign and handle him like a bonus pool guy but without suffering any of the penalties in terms of signing restrictions or fines that would normally come with that. Have we reached the point where they have too much damn money and something has to be done to rein them in?" * Mike (Danville, CA): "With the implementation of extreme defensive shifts to combat pull hitters, have or do you expect player development to a) increase the value of spray hitting ability when drafting or b) teach/encourage/develop more spray hitting techniques in the minors? It would seem that defensive shifts have the ability to reduce BABIP so a counter measure would be the development of non pull hitters that would increase BABIP." * Eric: "How would baseball be different if Moneyball were never published?" * Why does the arbitration system use such dumb criteria for awarding salaries? From what I understand it has a heavy dose of playing time along with old fashioned stats like RBI and wins. Even a system just based on playing time alone would probably be fairer or at least simpler, but why does Josh Donaldson, the 7th most valuable position player over the last three seasons, lose his case for a measly $5.7 million? Wouldn't be hard for MLB to instruct arbitrators to use more sophisticated criteria? Who is benefiting from the current system and why isn't there more of an effort to more strongly link arb salaries with production?" Play Index * Wade Davis' career ERA is 1.65 as a reliever. As a starter it is 4.57. * Sam wondered if Wade Davis had the largest gap between ERA as a starter and as a reliever. * Sam used a minimum of 150 IP as a reliever and 200 IP as a starter. * The all-time leader for this gap is Joaquin Benoit, who has a 6.06 ERA as a starter and 3.03 ERA as a reliever. Notes * In 2005 the Yankees had a league leading payroll of $210 million. The Red Sox had the second highest at $125 million. * Hitters who make attempts to spray the ball over the field usually give something up in power and contact rates. Ben thinks it is much better to improve on bunting against the shift. * The arbitrators who mediate cases with MLB teams are not just involved with baseball, so statistics and cases presented sometimes need to be simpler based on their working knowledge of the game. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 617: Dangerous Dodgers, Spray Hitters, and a World Without Moneyball * Do You Know Your Hairstons by Sam Miller Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes